10/24: My Top 25

I'm not a voter, and don't even pretend to be one. The job is often more mocked than anything else, and ultimately you get more grief than credit. All that said, here is the Top 25 I would submit if I did vote. I have tried my best to give justification for each spot. Think I got something wrong? Let me know. It'd be nice to have some healthy debate on my blog.


*Rankings can change week-to-week, a win doesn't necessarily equal staying or moving up.


1. Oregon
The Pac-10 has been very good this year, and the Ducks are making the rest of the league look stupid so far


2. TCU
They've been streamrolling people, including Air Force this week (same team that took OU to the limit in regulation).


3. Auburn
Cam Newton is amazing, but I still think they pass D bites them eventually. Only quality road win opportunity is Iron Bowl.


4. Utah
This would be that other Mountain West team no one is talking about, collision course with TCU on the way.


5. Boise St
Other teams doing more each week to move up, but just keep winning and others will fall.


6. Alabama
I know they lost, but their schedule gives them this spot, just ahead of some undefeated teams.


7. Missouri
I know they just got a huge win vs Oklahoma at home, but need to see more to believe. Schedule before last night was awful.


8. Michigan St
Northwester is well-coached and coming off a bye, so the comeback is what I like to see in that spot.


9. Oklahoma
Road loss doesn't hurt them too much, plus still quality W's on the resume.


10. LSU
LSU being in the game yesterday says how good their D is, a Top 5 D, but bottom 5 O.


11. Wisconsin
Huge road win for the Badgers to add to their home win vs Ohio St. L at #8 MSU lone blemish.


12. Stanford
Only loss is to Oregon, some nice thumpings otherwise, solid team.


13. Arizona
Only loss was by 2 pts to Oregon St w/Quizz, otherwise solid resume


14. Iowa
Two losses: by 1 vs #11 Wiscosin, by 7 at #13 Arizona. Can't punish too much for those.


15. Ohio St
Buckeyes have played one team currently ranked, Wisconsin, and they lost. Good at clubbing baby seals though.


16. Nebraska
I'm still very skeptical of Huskers, but a nice road win vs Okie St helps.


17. Florida St
Something weird: Noles might end season having played only 1 top 25 team, Oklahoma.


18. Northwestern
Ranking won't last long, but after that kind of effort I can slightly overlook headscratcher against Purdue.


19. Arkansas
Two losses both to Top 10 teams, remaining schedule gives plenty of room for resume to grow.


20. South Carolina
W over Alabama, W over Georgia looks better now, L at Auburn doesn't hurt, but L at Kentucky does.


21. Baylor
Next two games, at Texas & at Oklahoma St, will be the Show Me games for Bears.


22. Mississippi St
W over Florida only gives so much credit this year, close game w/UAB gives skepticism, but close L vs Auburn helps.


23. Oklahoma St
Yesterday vs Nebraska was first loss, but also first opponent of note.


24. Virginia Tech
Still haven't lost since losing twice to Boise St (loss to JMU counts as other loss to Boise)


25. Illinois
They have 3 L's, but they were vs #7 Missouri, at #8 Michigan St & vs #15 Ohio St. This feels odd, but they look decent.

9/14: Week 2 In Review - ACC Sucks, Lattimore Runs Wild, Quack & MORE!

Note: Jaguars attendance jokes strictly forbidden

ACC SUCKS

I'm sure there are mort artful ways for me to state it, but the ACC has a weekend so horrifying that "sucks" really is the most accurate way of describing it. Getting housed in a game the league had to see as a way to prop up the conference is bad enough, but to do it twice? Dropping the most-watched game from week 1 was bound to have some hangover effect, but to a 5th place team in the Colonial Athletic Association?

Complete ACC scores:

Wake Forest 54, Duke 48 - Can't believe Coach K dropped one after winning it all last year.

Kansas 28, #15 Georgia Tech 25 - Jackets are no North Dakota St

James Madison 21, #13 Virginia Tech 16 - Biggest victory for ol' Jimmy since the War of 1812.

Boston College 26, Kent St 13 - Wait, BC played a home non-con vs no name team?

#2 Ohio St 36, #12 Miami 24 - Without special teams this game isn't even this close.

#10 Oklahoma 47, #17 Florida St 17 - New head coach, same crappy defense

Clemson 58, Presbyterian 21 - Really? They gave up 21 to who?!?!

Maryland 62, Morgan St 3 - Leave it ol' Ralph to have most comfortable ACC win of the day.

NC St 28, UCF 21 - Wolfpack were actually underdogs per Vegas, says something.

#16 Southern Cal 17, Virginia 14 - UVa might have found their coach, lone good statement for ACC.

There are a lot of weeks to go, but the ACC had to circle this weekend on their calendar when the season began. On the table were opportunities for an seemingly improved FSU squad versus a retooling Oklahoma team, a tough offensive team in Georgia Tech versus a Kansas squad with a coaching change in progress, and the ultra talented Miami Hurricanes versus an Ohio St team lacking enough playmakers. It all ended in disaster.

For the ACC, there's always next year. Maybe then the the teams acquired in recent years will finally step up and perform, but for now they're not ready. The question remains as to when they will be.

LATTIMORE RUNS WILD

South Carolina needed a win, they couldn't afford to lose. It was now or never, if ever. If South Carolina couldn't win with likely their most talented team in the history of the program against the Georgia Bulldogs with a freshman quarterback and their best player suspended, would they ever?

I will start by saying that Georgia appeared to really limit themselves on offense. They didn't want freshman quarterback Aaron Murray to have to feel the weight of the situation in his first SEC contest, on the road no less. Georgia really seemed to ride the rushing attack early and limit the passing playbook, but could only muster yards and very little points early. As the game wore on the Gamecock defense started to be more effective against the Bulldog running game, and so Georgia started going to the air more and more as the game progressed. I came in thinking Murray was overrated from my experience seeing him play in high school, but I came away truly impressed with his play. In his first real game versus a quality defense I think he made some plays that should leave the Georgia faithful optimistic going forward. I expect he will develop, and if he does then there are some good years behind center for the kid. A fumble on a potential scoring drive prevented Murray from having a even better situation in the game, and perhaps he would have had an even better opportunity to show his stuff. As it is his team was simply outplayed by a team with more experience on the field.

Marcus Lattimore. Marcus Lattimore. Marcus Lattimore. Those were the three keys parts of the South Carolina offense, and little else really mattered. A detailed breakdown of just how dominant Lattimore was and how much of a beast he was please see the work of Travis Haney of the Charleston Post & Courier. The offensive line seemed to block well for the rushing plays, which may be more Lattimore than them, but on the passing plays there were some costly gaffes. Garcia did much on his own also to prevent the offense from hitting a full, balanced stride. His timing still seems off, with passes lacking the crispness in the plays drawn up. It is something that seems painfully obvious, and something that has to improve if the Gamecocks want to make the kind of statement the rest of the team seems ready to make this season.

This week Furman comes calling, and it's yet another opportunity for "New Carolina" to continue to distance itself from the Ghosts of Carolina Past. A solid win against FU is important, as they are a decent D-IAA team (ranked 24th).

QUACK

It was all going so well on Rocky Top. Tennessee was controlling the momentum against #7 Oregon with a hard rushing attack and a smothering defense. The score was a slight advantage to Tennessee despite the total dominance on the field. The halftime score was tied up at 13, which had to seem slight disappointing to Vol fans despite an overall feeling of jubilation that their team had played so well when most likely were expecting the worst. Then came the second half. Oregon showed the explosiveness that is their signature in recent years. It ended in a 35-point win for the Ducks highlighted by some top plays of the week.

I draw 3 conclusions from this game:

1) Oregon is really, really good. They are without a doubt one of the few teams voters can safely put into their top ten. If they can navigate conference schedule they even have a shot at a lot more. They were likely thrown of by the weather delay and their atmosphere of the massive monstrosity that is Tennessee's home field, plus there's something about Tennessee's play that I will save for #3.

2) Tennessee is going to struggle even get bowl eligible this season. They are going to struggle to compete with Florida, Alabama, and others. It is what you get with the turmoil, turnover, and thin depth chart that the last few years have brought to Knoxville.

3) Derek Dooley is the right guy for Tennessee. I though he was the right hire back when he was first announced, and saw signs on Saturday that he will indeed succeed in the end. He is a no nonsense guy with a very simple and focused approach to the game. He can win if they give him the time he needs. I think they will, and so will he.

10 Thoughts of the Week

1) If I hear "I only wanted one more year" from Bobby Bowden, I'm going to pour hot sauce into my eyes.

2) Michigan-Notre Dame remains a very entertaining game between teams with zero national relevance.

3) That said, Denard Robinson is a very special player, even if no one else on his team is worth a damn.

4) The Miami Hurricanes don't play well when it rains, go figure.

5) If Virginia Tech beats Miami later this season will we decide Boise St is better than Ohio St then?

6) Comparing what Reggie Bush did to what O.J. did is asinine. Just stop, stop it now, you're an idiot.

7) Ole Miss won at Tulane 27-13, which means they do suck, that J'ville St thing wasn't a fluke.

8) Matt Millen is employed for reasons the elude me.

9) If Dan Mullen had a quarterback, everybody else would be screwed.

10) I say Chris Rainey will be back in a Gator uniform getting carries by the end of October (it's Urban Discipline).

and now, your moment of zen....

8/31: My 2010 College Football Predictions

SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS
(font size appropriate to media hype and recent BCS success)


EAST
1. Florida 10-2 (6-2): I know they're replacing a lot, but it's hard to see too many programs in the East knocking off Florida this season. For each of the remaining Eastern division teams I will explain my hesitation. Florida isn't going to rebuild, they're going to reload with as much talent as they had last year. Experience will cost this team a chance at more than SEC success, but they'll be a force for national title hopes in 2011.
LOSSES: 10/2 @ Alabama, 10/16 vs Mississippi St

Look! It's Tim Tebow! And Brady Quinn! They were so good in college...




2. South Carolina 9-3 (5-3): I know this is probably a biased pick, but I really think this team is capable of having a great season with all the turmoil in the division. It would take a big leap forward to contend with Florida, but the talent is there. The schedule isn't especially good or bad for a run, but it does set up for a possible 4-0 going into the Auburn/Alabama stretch if they can beat Georgia.
LOSSES: 9/25 @ Auburn, 10/9 vs Alabama, 11/13 @ Florida


3. Georgia 8-4 (5-3): Georgia is facing turnover at defensive coordinator and quarterback, which in these cases are good things. I saw Aaron Murray in high school and remain skeptical that he will match the hype he garnered (thought his receivers were able to make him look better than he was, which is not typical in high school). I don't see the kind of season that will relieve the pressure Mark Richt is starting to feel, but I think it will be a step in the right direction if their defense can regain competence.
LOSSES: 9/11 @ S Carolina, 9/18 vs Arkansas, 10/30 vs Florida, 11/27 vs Georgia Tech


4. Kentucky 7-5 (3-5): Rich Brooks finished out his tenure at Kentucky with 4-consecutive bowl seasons for the Wildcats. The transition to Joker Phillips was planned in such a manner that there shouldn't be a noticeable decline outside of pure leadership. I feel like it's going out on a limb, but my predictions for Kentucky aren't changed by Brooks retiring. Randall Cobb is still really good, so Kentucky still puts together a good season. Hey, they should be able to finally beat Tennessee, which might be reason enough for celebration.
LOSSES: 9/25 @ Florida, 10/9 vs Auburn, 10/16 vs S Carolina, 10/23 vs Georgia, 10/30 @ Miss St


5. Tennessee 5-7 (2-6): Long-term I think Derek Dooley will succeed at Tennessee with his no-nonsense approach, but it will be rough dealing with being the third coach in three years in Knoxville. I expect the offense to try to slow the game down and for the defense to be respectable, but in far too many games they are going to struggle. Really the season might not be much worse than it was last year under Kiffin, but some of those fluke games might not come around this year. I like Dooley, but I don't like Tennessee this season.
LOSSES: 9/11 vs Oregon, 9/18 vs Florida, 10/2 @ LSU, 10/9 @ Georgia, 10/23 vs Alabama, 10/20 @ S Carolina, 11/27 vs Kentucky


6. Vanderbilt 2-10 (1-7): Robbie Caldwell took SEC Media Days by storm, and instantly became my second-favorite coach in the SEC. He even started a Twitter account recently that is a must-follow. The problem is that the Commodores struggled last year and really have little reason to expect improvement. Vanderbilt does manage to schedule a tougher out of conference slate than most (Northwestern, at UConn, & Wake Forest), which doesn't help their cause. Enjoy Robbie Caldwell now, he won't last... unfortunately.
WINS: 9/18 @ Ole Miss, 10/9 vs Eastern Michigan


WEST
1. Auburn 10-2 (6-2): Auburn last year had a more successful season than most expected. Gene Chizik seemed to prove his struggles at Iowa St were not indicative of his abilities to coach football, which is good for Auburn after the PR disaster they suffered when they hired him. This season you would expect some improvement, but the schedule gives you reason for more optimism. Auburn is likely the be favored in at least 9 of their games. Their toughest games are at home, their road games are their easiest. I have them winning tie-breakers to go to Atlanta.
LOSSES: 11/13 vs Georgia, 11/27 @ Alabama


2. LSU 10-2 (6-2): There's just a feeling I have that Les Miles is going to have a good season. I don't think I'm the only one, but their late-season swoons in recent seasons have made them look worse than they were all year. I think LSU can thrive this season with the schedule they have, and this just seems like a team ready to rebound. They just better hope their season doesn't come down to a last-second clock management issue.
LOSSES: 10/9 @ Florida, 10/23 @ Auburn


3. Alabama 10-2 (6-2): I know what you're thinking, "A third 10-2 SEC West team?". You'd be right, I'm probably crazy, but I think the power struggle in the west results in three 10-win teams and no claim to a team in the national title game. Alabama will be good, and it would not shock me at all if they won the whole thing again. I just think it's too tough to repeat, especially in what will be a great division of the nation's best conference.
LOSSES: 9/25 @ Arkansas, 11/6 @ LSU


4. Mississippi State 7-5 (4-4): Dan Mullen did a lot in just his first season to inspire confidence amongst the cowbell-ringing faithful in Starkville. They finished just shy of a bowl-berth despite a complete coaching transition and offensive change. I expect their defense to be improved, and I expect the offense to only improve with experience in the system. I definitely like their game this year at Florida, remembering they put a scare into the Gators last year. That's my off-the-wall game pick of this preview.
LOSSES: 9/11 vs Auburn, 9/18 @ LSU, 9/25 vs Georgia, 10/9 @ Houston, 11/13 @ Alabama


5. Arkansas 8-4 (4-4): The Hogs are a trendy pick amongst many to make some noise in the SEC West this season. My problem with Arkansas is their inability to defend, which there is no reason to indicate will change this season. Ryan Mallet might be the best quarterback in college football this season, but their defense is too much of a question to mark to expect more than a 8 or 9 win season.
LOSSES: 10/16 @ Auburn, 11/6 @ S Carolina, 11/20 @ Miss St, 11/27 vs LSU


6. Ole Miss 3-9 (0-8): This is the team I expect will overturn my prediction, because that's what Houston Nutt does. Their QB situation became more muddled today as Jeremiah Masoli was declared ineligible, pending appeal the Rebels will lack anything at the quarterback position. Dexter McCluster is the biggest loss for Ole Miss, but I have learned by now not to predict a Houston Nutt team and expect them to fulfill my prediction.
WINS: 9/4 vs Jacksonville St, 9/11 @ Tulane, 11/6 vs Louisiana-Lafayette


SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Auburn 27, Florida 16




EVERYBODY ELSE


ACC: Virginia Tech over Maryland
I picked this the only way possible, by flipping a coin. I think that's how they actually decide the ACC title game anyway. The of this conference is too extreme to use normal tactics.


Big XII: Nebraska over Oklahoma
I like both these teams, and this game is likely to have a large say in who plays for a national title. In this case I expect Nebraska to be the spoiler.


Big East: Pittsburgh
I know this is the trendy pick, but I really do like them this year. If they can navigate their tough schedule they could even play for the title, but the road schedule just seems too tough.


Big Ten: Iowa
Most have Ohio St, but I can see that the Hawkeyes get the Buckeyes in Iowa City. Examine the schedule, it's made for them to make a serious run.


Pac-10: Arizona
Southern Cal will be the best team, but with NCAA sanctions the title and BCS bid will go to the Wildcats.

BCS BOWL GAMES
Orange: Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
The ACC winner vs the Big East winner, neither title-worthy.
Sugar: Auburn vs Oklahoma
Auburn wins SEC, but at 10-2 no title game. Oklahoma derailed in Big XII title game by Nebraska, but gets BCS at-large consolation prize.
Fiesta: Nebraska vs Alabama
Nebraska finishes their Big XII tenure by playing a tradition-inspired Fiesta Bowl vs at-large Tide.
Rose: Arizona vs Ohio St
Pac-10 champ Wildcats face at-large Buckeyes still smarting from loss to Iowa.
BCS Title Game: Iowa vs Boise State
The National Title Game The Ushers Us Closer To A Play-Off. Iowa goes 12-0 in Big Ten and faces undefeated Boise St with no other contender with less than 2 losses.






And now, your moment of zen...