Monday, March 15, 2010

3/15: Why Mississippi St is better than Florida & My Bracket



MY ONLY GRIPE
IN: FLORIDA
Despite being considered by most to have little chance for a bid the Gators made it in. Not only in, but a 10 seed. I really didn't see this coming, but it's clear indication that the committee values the non-conference schedule where Florida rattled off wins against Michigan St and Florida St. They also had quality non-conference losses to Syracuse, Richmond, and Xavier. That said most seem to forget that the Gators lost four of their last five including their last three regular season games. They got Xavier and Richmond at home, and they also suffered bad losses to Georgia and South Alabama. Coupled with a 9-7 SEC record and a 4th place Eastern Division finish that's their resume.


OUT: MISSISSIPPI STATE
Despite a strong run in the SEC Tournament the Bulldogs had to sit and watch as their name was never called on Sunday, until later during the much anticipated NIT Selection Show on ESPNU. I was really shocked by this. I was shocked because Mississippi St was 9-7 in the SEC, beat two SEC teams who earned NCAA bids, and took the only other to OT and lost by 1 point on an uncalled lane violation. MSU simply has no impressive non-conference victory, but did lose by 1 point to Richmond. They lost their opener vs Rider and another non-conference game at Western Kentucky, who also knocked off Vanderbilt back when no one seems to remember. Mississippi St showed they were a strong tournament team playing the right way at the right time.


WHAT'S MY GRIPE?
Two things:
1) For all the talk about Florida playing a tough non-conference schedule it should be noted they played on the road just once outside of the SEC, in Raleigh where an insane shot saved them from what would have seemed a bid-killing loss right now. That loss to Syracuse was in Tampa, a default home game vs a team that typically doesn't leave the state of New York until conference play requires it. That win vs Michigan St, who I'm not sure is all that good, was in on a true neutral court in NYC. The win over Florida State? In the friendly confines of the O'Connell Center. The losses to Richmond, South Alabama and Xavier? All at home. They didn't go out any play anybody on their turf during that tough slate.In fact the only non-conference opponent other than NC State that Florida played was the harrowing journey to Jackonville to play the mighty Jacksonville University Dolphins.
Mississippi St? They went to Anaheim and beat two Power Six opponents in UCLA and DePaul. We all know now UCLA was no good, but it's not as if the Bulldogs didn't try. They beat an ODU team that made the tourney and lost by a singe point on neutral court to Richmond. The loss to Western Kentucky? Was on the Hilltoppers' home court. Wins over San Diego and Houston were also on the road.
It's not that they played the toughest opponents, but they left their own state more than twice during that span, unlike the Gators who apparently were saving their frequent flyer miles for the NCAA bid they unfortunately received.
2) Mississippi St 65, Florida 59 SEC QUARTERFINAL. Mississippi St 65, (23) Vanderbilt 52 SEC SEMI-FINAL. (2) Kentucky 75, Mississippi St 74 OT SEC FINAL.
Those impress me a lot more than Florida getting lucky that Michigan St didn't do a UCLA and completely collapse. The non-conference opponents are beyond control, and both had equally bad losses. I don't think Florida's win or two (Michigan St and Florida St were the ONLY good ones) are more impressive than MSU's run in  the conference tourney which including a win over Florida, a win over a Vanderbilt team that Florida was swept by, and taking a UK team to the limit that ran Florida off the court twice. Not to mention the Bulldogs lost by single digits in the regular season against those same two teams.


WHAT I'M SAYING IS: Rewarding Florida with a bid based on non-conference schedule is rewarding an arbitrary rotation of who is and isn't good while not given proper weight to a team that is playing well in a tournament format, which the NCAA values so much in their basketball that they determine their champion.


AT THE END OF THE DAY: If college basketball were run by the morons that run college football then Kansas and Kentucky would be playing in early May while the rest of these teams would battle it out in an awesomely entertaining but ultimately meaningless version of the NIT. So while I can strongly disagree as to who gets that 30-somethingth at-large bid, it's a whole lot better than arguing whether Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse or Duke deserve the only two spots.




MY BRACKET
FIRST ROUND
Upsets:
[13] Siena over [4] Purdue - I know, popular pick, but I'd like Siena in almost any first round match-up.
[13] Murray St over [4] Vanderbilt - Racers rate historically high in Giant Killer ratings, Vandy vulnerable.
[12] UTEP over [5] Butler - I saw them vs Houston, even in loss the talent is apparent, not sold on Butler.
[12] Cornell over [5] Temple - Trendy, but for a reason. Temple doesn't put anybody way, Big Red shoots 3's.
[11] San Diego St over [6] Tennessee - Vols off tough loss playing streaking Aztecs at 9:55 PM EST.
[10] Missouri over [7] Clemson - Mostly bias, but never hurt me yet taking Clemson to lose first round.
[10] Georgia Tech over [7] Oklahoma St - GT very talented but underachieved, OK St laid back at end of season.
[9] Louisville over [8] California - Not really an upset, but I wanted to indicate all seeding upsets.
Upsets I can't call, but want to:
[14] Oakland over [3] Pittsburgh - Pitt is the kind of overachieving team that can suffer massive upset.
[14] Montana over [3] New Mexico - Anthony Johnson, Sr G for Montana, scored 42 (34 in 2nd half) in comeback win in conference final. Alford tourney history as coach not good.
[13] Wofford over [4] Wisconsin - Badgers can't put anyone away, Wofford narrowly lost to a similar Pitt team.
3 Best Games:
Oklahoma St vs Georgia Tech - So much talent on the court, so little known to America.
Marquette vs Washington - Buzz Williams is all the reason you need to watch, watch him work.
Gonzaga vs Florida St - Get your popcorn ready, should be points.


SECOUND ROUND
Upsets:
[13] Murray St over [12] UTEP - Think the Tampa bracket from 2008 (where Western Ky emerged)
[13] Siena over [5] Texas A&M - Siena is a good team that gets no credit, not scared of Aggies.
[12] Cornell over [4] Wisconsin - Cornell gets another match-up with team that doesn't put you away.
[6] Xavier over [3] Pittsburgh - Pitt overachieved, not so sure Xavier didn't underachieve.
Upset I can't call, but want to:
[6] Richmond over [2] Villanova - As much as I like 'Nova, still hard to shake their skid lately.
3 Best Games:
Syracuse vs Gonzaga - If Orange are still hobbling this could be very interesting.
Villanova vs Richmond - This is 'Nova's chance to show something, or get bounced early.
Kansas vs UNLV - This is the kind of game where Kansas needs to show experience, and will.


SWEET 16 ROUND
KU over Maryland - Greivis Vasquez is good, but Jayhawks are better.
Georgetown over Ohio St - JT3 has him team playing well, Ohio St may be untested until this.
Syracuse over Murray St - Clock strikes midnight for the Racers, Orange too strong.
K State over Xavier - Frank Martin will stare down the Musketeers, then beat them.
Kentucky over Cornell - Reality sets in that this isn't a spelling bee, but a basketball game.
West Va over New Mexico - Huggie Bear not the best tourney coach, but neither is Alford.
Duke over Siena - Not many team capable of beating Duke when it's on the line.
Villanova over Baylor - Scary game for 'Cats with Baylor playing well coming in.


ELITE 8 ROUND
Kansas over Georgetown - No stopping the Jayhawks now, they can play defensive games too.
K State over Syracuse - Frank Martin stares down the zone, then beats it.
West Va over Kentucky - Controversial showdown comes to close as Wall's new SUV discovered.
Villanova over Duke - Wait, haven't we seen this before? It went 77-54 last year, repeat.


NATIONAL SEMIS
Kansas over Kansas St - Fourth time is a charm, Frank Martin retreats to Octagon of Solitude.
West Virginia over Villanova - Big East shown down, both team lost at home in regular season match-ups.


NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
KANSAS 68, WEST VIRGINIA 59
Should be entertaining with WVU's Butler vs KU's Collins, but nobody beating Jayhawks this year.




and now, your moment of zen


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